OECD says 170,000 jobs could be lost if there is a second Covid wave

08 of July, 2020
Filed under: Latest News

The number of people employed in the State could fall by as much as 8.2 per cent this year if a second Covid-19 outbreak takes place in October or November, according to a forecast from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

Based on a labour force survey from the Central Statistics Office, the worst case scenario could reduce the number of people employed by 169,770.

The Paris-based think tank has forecast the possible hit to employment based on two scenarios.

The “double-hit” scenario factors in a possible second wave, and suggests employment would contract by 8.2 per cent this year and by a further 1.7 per cent next year. This scenario assumes that further outbreaks will be avoided in 2021 due to pharmaceutical breakthroughs, “but these remain significant downside risks”.

In the less severe single-hit scenario employment would contract 6.7 per cent this year before rebounding by 2 per cent next year. Under this scenario the effective reproduction rate of the virus is assumed to stay persistently below one.

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